Post Election Voting Demographics in Pennsylvania

This piece, published by NPR, strictly examines voting statistics by county for the state of Pennsylvania. While Pennsylvania has consistently swayed Democratic in each Presidential election since 1992, 2016 represents a flip in the trend for Presidential voting with the popular majority voting for the Republican candidate. There was only a discrepancy of less than 100,000 votes between the Democratic and Republican candidate, representing roughly 1 percent greater support for Donald Trump in terms of popular vote. One thing that is incredibly interesting in looking at county results is looking at population demographics versus voting trends. Of the 7 highest populated counties in Pennsylvania, 6 leaned Democratic, 5 counties of which represented a Democratic margin greater than 9 %. However, the 45 smallest counties in Pennsylvania by population all leaned Republican. This is a massive result for grassroots support, and surely influenced the overall voting trend in Pennsylvania. Ultimately, the rural support of small counties for the Republican party seems to have been enough to sway the election results for the state of Pennsylvania for the first time in over two decades.

Post by Dan Hamann

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/08/499666514/pennsylvania-2016-presidential-and-state-election-results

Election results

Donald Trump won in this election and also won in this state thanks to the popularity among working-class whites, and Pat Toomey was re-elected to the Senate.
However, Democrats have won every presidential race in Pennsylvania since 1992.
·         2012: Barack Obama
·         2008: Barack Obama
·         2004: John Kerry
·         2000: Al Gore
·         1996: Bill Clinton
To look more closesly to results:
Trump won with 49% (2,912,941)
Clinton 48% (2,844,705)
Johnson 2% (142,653)
Stein 1% (48,912)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pennsylvania-election-results/story?id=42603030

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Chester County

While Americans in all 50 states will head to the polls on Tuesday, the focus will be on a select few who will make all the difference in handing the presidency to either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. In the latest swing-state polls ahead of the presidential election, Trump’s already narrow path to the White House was looking increasingly perilous.

In Pennsylvania, a state which at 1 percent looked in-play for Trump, Clinton has a 4 percent lead in most-recent polling. It is a similar story in Michigan, where a final poll for Fox Channel 2 in conjunction with Mitchell Research showed a 5 percentage points lead for Clinton.

But looking at one of the most interesting counties in Pennsylvania - Chester County. In 2012, the county tied 49-49 for Obama and Romney, with just a slight edge to the Republican; increasingly, the demographic mix makes Chester a true swing county. Democrats and Republicans have been pushing their ground games hard in the last few weeks.

The unevenness of Chester County is part of what makes it a political toss-up. Once a Republican stronghold, it  is now almost perfectly split between the two major parties. The county's demographics are a mix of the rural conservatives who make up Trump's base; the rich voters who help make the county's median income the highest in state; middle-class moderates; and some of the poor, minority voters whom Clinton is counting on. All these voters, of different classes and races and ideologies, live close together.  As a result, campaigns have descended on Chester with ads, rallies, and meet-and-greet events--potential voters are targeted with almost scientific precision. The county is a case study in American demographic change, with its wildly uneven growth in prosperity, influx of Latinos, and fallen steel industry. All of the stark divides that have defined this election exist here in Chester County, in close proximity to one another.

Democrats in Chester County are focusing their energy on Coatesville, where roughly 47 percent of the 13,00 residents are African American. For a long time, it was home to the booming Lukens Steel Company, one of the biggest steel manufacturers in the U.S. But in the late ’90s, Lukens was purchased and the mill jobs slowly started going away; now one-third of the city lives in poverty.

http://www.ibtimes.com/latest-swing-state-polls-florida-ohio-north-carolina-pennsylvania-heading-donald-2443400

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/swing-state-pennsylvania-cant-wait-till-this-is-over/506909/


Post by Anete Rožukalne

SEPTA Strike Ends in Time for Election Day

Employees of the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), numbering greater than 5000, have tentatively ended their call to strike in time for Election Day. In a bid to gain recognition over pension benefits and time off disputes, SEPTA employees called to strike on November 1st, just 7 days before the Presidential election, resulting in massive gridlock and extended commutes. Public transportation services in Philadelphia, split between subways, buses, and trolleys provide nearly 1 million rides each weekday, many of these rides for residents who don't own an automobile. 

Lack of transportation would have had massive implications for Philadelphia residents who intended to vote, but had no convenient avenue to take to the polls. Philadelphia and it's expansive suburban swath to the North and East of the city show a Democratic majority, and potentially could have had a severe impact on voter turnout. The strike ended on November 7th, with many in Pennsylvania's local government citing the implications and questioning the legality of not providing transportation services to residents at Election time. 

Post by Dan Hamann

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/11/07/philadelphia-transit-strike-ends-union-septa-reach-deal-reports-say/93412510/

Counter Suits in the Case of Alleged Voter Fraud in Pennsylvania

This piece, produced by the Atlantic, is focused on the Democratic reactions to Donald Trump's previous claims of potential voter fraud. Trump encouraged his supporters to monitor polling stations in an effort to discourage voter fraud. While poll watching is allowed in Pennsylvania, there are stipulations to who and the number of people allowed to poll watch at respective  polling stations. Trump's encouragement essentially forewent the understanding of limits to poll watchers.

The real fear behind Trump's comments, and the reason that a number of different Democratic lawsuits against Trump have surfaced is based on the potential voter intimidation that could come out of encouraging party supporters to amass at polling sites. It is easy to make an argument that congregating at polling stations can be taken as voter intimidation or suppression, which is the reasoning behind Democratic lawsuits being brought forth against Trump.

As an anecdote at the end of the piece, which I found humorous, the publication published a statement made by a Republican city councilman, Joshua Lorenz, who posted via social media a web page that contained instructions for how Clinton supporters could vote online. Accompanying this web page, Lorenz' comments were as follows" More proof that the election process is rigged, only Hillary supporters can vote from their smartphones or in the comfort of their own homes." The Atlantic closes this piece by stating the fact that online voting in Pennsylvania is non-existent.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/poll-monitoring-voter-intimidation-lawsuits/506078/

Post by Dan Hamann

Sept. Jobs Report and Election Impacts

As the election approaches, and the results seem ever-increasingly determined, I thought I’d use this post to underline a major area of Pennsylvania concern, which has had a dramatic influence on politics. The September jobs report shows that PA unemployment remains unchanged, sitting at 5.7% above our nation’s 5.0% average. As much of PA’s historic economy has relied on mines that have recently took a hit over the last couple of years in favor of cleaner energy solutions, many people have lost their jobs. This has had a greater impact on this election because the Obama administration (and therefore the Democratic party) has been a main proponent of this change. Because of this, many people who normally wouldn’t vote are more likely to vote, and the intensity among these voters are higher than normal.

 

Another trend within PA that can be observed is the shift in population from rural to urban areas. This also presents another problem because, as outlined in the Sept. jobs report, total non-farm jobs decreased by over 5,000. This trend of urban vote has impacted election results because these voters typically vote in favor of the Democratic party.

 

http://www.politicspa.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-remains-unchanged/79451/

Final Senate Debate Yields No Surprises

In the final scheduled debate for the office of the Senator in Pennsylvania, Senator Pat Toomey and Democratic front runner and opponent Katie McGinty sparred over issues of social unrest, such as police shootings and abortion, as well as taxation and healthcare concerns. With polls for the presidential election trending towards Clinton, the battle for Senate is becoming ever important, with Pennsylvania becoming a true "battleground" for the Senate. McGinty and Toomey are polling almost identical, in a nationwide Senate race that has the potential to be decided by the smallest of margins, and will either tilt towards Democratic or Republican majority.

Unsurprisingly, Toomey discussed plans for tax cuts, conservative social theory, and consolidation of Federal services. Toomey would not pledge support for the Republican candidate Donald Trump when pushed, deferring any concrete judgement for or against the candidate. McGinty stressed support for African Americans following a period of social unrest and uneasiness regarding police brutality, and also declared herself as a "champion of the working class." She also voiced pro-choice support in regards to abortion, criticizing the "gruesome picture" that her opponent presented when discussing late term abortions.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161025_Toomey__McGinty_clash_in_final_debate.html

Post by Dan Hamann