Sept. Jobs Report and Election Impacts

As the election approaches, and the results seem ever-increasingly determined, I thought I’d use this post to underline a major area of Pennsylvania concern, which has had a dramatic influence on politics. The September jobs report shows that PA unemployment remains unchanged, sitting at 5.7% above our nation’s 5.0% average. As much of PA’s historic economy has relied on mines that have recently took a hit over the last couple of years in favor of cleaner energy solutions, many people have lost their jobs. This has had a greater impact on this election because the Obama administration (and therefore the Democratic party) has been a main proponent of this change. Because of this, many people who normally wouldn’t vote are more likely to vote, and the intensity among these voters are higher than normal.

 

Another trend within PA that can be observed is the shift in population from rural to urban areas. This also presents another problem because, as outlined in the Sept. jobs report, total non-farm jobs decreased by over 5,000. This trend of urban vote has impacted election results because these voters typically vote in favor of the Democratic party.

 

http://www.politicspa.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-remains-unchanged/79451/

Final Senate Debate Yields No Surprises

In the final scheduled debate for the office of the Senator in Pennsylvania, Senator Pat Toomey and Democratic front runner and opponent Katie McGinty sparred over issues of social unrest, such as police shootings and abortion, as well as taxation and healthcare concerns. With polls for the presidential election trending towards Clinton, the battle for Senate is becoming ever important, with Pennsylvania becoming a true "battleground" for the Senate. McGinty and Toomey are polling almost identical, in a nationwide Senate race that has the potential to be decided by the smallest of margins, and will either tilt towards Democratic or Republican majority.

Unsurprisingly, Toomey discussed plans for tax cuts, conservative social theory, and consolidation of Federal services. Toomey would not pledge support for the Republican candidate Donald Trump when pushed, deferring any concrete judgement for or against the candidate. McGinty stressed support for African Americans following a period of social unrest and uneasiness regarding police brutality, and also declared herself as a "champion of the working class." She also voiced pro-choice support in regards to abortion, criticizing the "gruesome picture" that her opponent presented when discussing late term abortions.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161025_Toomey__McGinty_clash_in_final_debate.html

Post by Dan Hamann

Donald Trump held a rally in Newtown

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump held a rally in Newtown, Pennsylvania yesterday on October 21st. Trump’s press release says that the Republican nominee plans to rebuild the U.S. Navy on day one, “which has shrunk under the Obama-Clinton years to its lowest level since World War I. Donald Trump has proposed a significant increase in the size of Navy. He predicted a victory that would be like "Brexit times five," referencing the larger-than-expected vote in Great Britain to pull out of the European Union.National and state polls suggest that he faces a growing challenge: Trump lags behind Democrat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by an average margin of more than 6 percentage points. Many pollsters feel that the state has already been lost to Hillary Clinton. During the evening rally, much of Trump's speech focused on his  desire to build a wall along the Mexican border, end Obamacare and lower taxes. He also reiterated his pledge to put coal miners back to work, a policy proposal less tailored for his suburban audience.http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-president-trump-bucks-county-20161021-story.html   http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html 

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Philadelphia Responds to claims of voter fraud.

Elected officials in Pennsylvania, on both sides of the party line, have come together to criticize claims from Donald Trump that the only potential way for Trump to lose Pennsylvania is through voter fraud. Trump and other campaign advisers have singled out Philadelphia, a heavily Democratic region of Pennsylvania and the 5th largest U.S. city, as a potential hub for voter fraud that they speculate may cost the Republican nominee the state. The Republican election commissioner, Al Schmidt, stated "the real threat to the integrity of elections is irresponsible accusations that undermine confidence in the electoral process."

Trump also called for citizens to act as "election observers" or poll watchers in an attempt to prevent election fraud. However, there are strict laws in Pennsylvania about who and how many people can be appointed as watchers. Parties can assign a limited number of registered voters, that receive special credentials to watch over voting in their own precincts. This is not a luxury available to the general public, but instead an exclusive opportunity.

Post by Dan Hamann

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/philadelphia-leaders-assail-claims-of-impending-voter-fraud/2016/10/17/2e2abd62-94ab-11e6-9cae-2a3574e296a6_story.html

Closer Than Polls Might Indicate

In Emily Goodin’s article, For Pa. Voters, It’s Still the Economy, she highlights two key points. That the issue of economy has driven an incentive and therefore an increase in unlikely voters; this increase in unlikely voters aren’t represented in polls, which show Clinton up by an average of 7 percentage points. As the general election has tipped in Clinton’s favor, Democratic representatives such as Senator Bob Casey still are unsure that the polls accurately represent the close race Pennsylvania might become. Democratic representative Mike Dole also expressed concerns that voter interests weren’t appropriately being discussed, as both campaigns have recently shifted toward tarnishing each other instead.

As Trump is highly considered to be losing in most states, Pennsylvania might remain a tight decision based on voter intensity of low-income and mid-income families that have been hit hard by the economy.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/17/for_pa_voters_its_still_the_economy_132082.html

Pennsylvania Senate debate

The debate between Republican U.S. Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania’s race for U.S. Senate begun with accusations of dishonesty.

Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey and Democratic Katie McGinty went after each other in their first debate, with him sharpening an attack accusing her of enriching herself with taxpayer money and her pressing him over his refusal to say whether he'll vote for GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

McGinty called Toomey the only U.S. Senate candidate who won’t say whether he plans to vote for GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

The first-term Toomey is among the Senate’s most endangered Republicans, running for re-election in a state where registered Democrats hold a four-to-three advantage over Republicans.

In this race most notable issues  were differences over national security, tax policy, gun rights, abortion and immigration.

The hour-long debate was taped Monday afternoon and was to be broadcast at 7 p.m. A second debate is set for Oct. 24 in Philadelphia.

Toomey has repeatedly sought to distance himself from Trump, and on Monday he rejected Trump's suggestions the Pennsylvania election will be rigged, saying, "Our elections ... are legitimate."

On October 10, 2016, Toomey said that he would not endorse Donald Trump, but he did not say whether he would vote for Trump. He also said that he would not vote for Clinton. In a news release, Toomey said, "Sadly, last night’s debate again showed the shortcomings of both presidential candidates. I have not endorsed Donald Trump and I have repeatedly spoken out against his flawed policies, and his outrageous comments, including his indefensible and appalling comments about women.

Post by Anete Rožukalne

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/17/the-latest-first-debate-in-pennsylvania-senate-rac/   

Surging Voter Registration for Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has seen a boom in voter registration in the wake of its implementation of online methods, which are now used alongside the traditional paper registration method. Pennsylvania has seen nearly double the number of registrants in September of this election cycle in comparison to the same period of the last election, in 2012. The number of online registrants alone (172,000) is almost equal to the total number of registrants in 2012 (186,000) who at the time were relegated to paper registration. 

This boom in registration comes to a head on Tuesday, the 11th of October, when voter registration closes. The early available information regarding registrants sees a gain for Republican support and a drop in Democratic support, both at 3 percent respectively. However, the voter totals still sees a larger number (4.1 million) of registered Democrats in comparison to Republicans (3.2 million) and an additional 1.1 million unaffiliated or third-party voters. 

With Pennsylvania carrying significance as a swing state in recent history, current live polls show that the Democratic nominee holds a double digit point lead over the Republican nominee, and with voter registration coming to a close showcases the significance of both party leaders doing their best to convince undecided voters why their platform would be ideal.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2016/10/09/Online-voter-registration-surges-in-Pennsylvania/stories/201610090142

Post by Dan Hamann

Significance of Gender Trends in Pennsylvania

This article highlights the 2005 Trump tape that surfaced this week and likely voter reactions. This article specifically highlights that the 2005 tape in which he made extremely lewd and belittling remarks about women had a stronger impact among women’s opinions of Trump. This may seem obvious, but has detrimental impacts on Trump’s campaign specifically in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is basically split in that urban areas in major cities are heavily Democrat and rural areas heavily Republican. Listed in previous articles, a duel strategy is key to winning Pennsylvania—holding onto party-dominated areas, while gaining the suburban swing vote. As the article notes, Trump was already facing a deficit in women voters, particularly women with college degrees. This is significant because suburban areas (Pennsylvania’s swing vote) tend to have higher income and education levels.

In the article, a poll done by CBS showed that 42% among males and 53% among females changed their views of Trump after the release of the 2005 tape. Although the article focuses on noting the difference between gender reactions, I would rather like to highlight the effects it will have on the suburban swing vote.

Before the tape surfaced, CBS polls already showed Clinton with 48% of the vote, besting Trump’s 40% among likely voters. With negative trends in educated women in support of Trump, a victory in the suburban area would be extremely unlikely, and therefore, a Republican victory in Pennsylvania would be highly unlikely.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/

Post by Brian Kraegenbrink

The Latest Polls

The latest polls of the presidential race shows that Hillary Clinton after the first debate was with a narrow lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

Clinton was 48% and Trump 43%. The poll says that Clinton loses support among women and Democrats. Although that Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, says that „North Carolina and Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton the narrowest of lead”.

Huffington post yesterday’s latest poll states that Clinton has 46,5% and Trump 40,7%. Polls differ, so it is not hundred percent sure what is the correct result. Clintons back is the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs. The poll shows her leading in this area, 64 percent to 28 percent and in the city of Philadelphia, she has 53-point lead, meaning that she is in unsurpassed lead. The Pennsylvania poll was conducted October 3-6, surveying 709 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Polls (CBS News/YouGov polls) from other swing states also show good results for Clinton, she is in 8 point lead in Pennsylvania and 4 point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin.

Donald Trump is in Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre giving speech to his supporters. He is talking about Clinton's mistakes, health care and employment problems in state. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/clinton-trump-florida-pennsylvania-polls-229404

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps09082016_pg92cxm.pdf

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-pennsylvania-president-trump-vs-clinton

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Massive Campaign Donations in Pennsylvania's Senate Race

This piece, from the Philadelphia Inquirer, examines the massive influx of campaign, PAC, and special interests donations that put Pennsylvania at the very top in terms of Senate race combined campaign donations. The main players in Pennsylvania's senate race are Katie McGinty (D) and Pat Toomey (R), and both are receiving unprecedented financial support from respective interests.

These donations create a question of representative legitimacy, where answering to the donating special interests could potentially take priority over representation of the common constituents that both Senatorial candidates are tasked with speaking for. An accompanying piece, penned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, brings into question the issue of representative legitimacy. Robert Maguire, a political nonprofit investigator for the Center for Responsive Politics, brings up the point "When politicians get in office, they know who got them there. It's not that major donors buy policies or politicians, but when they call, they get their call answered by senators, That's not something regular constituents get."

Additionally, the irony of the donation situation falls on the shoulders of McGinty, who has received a significantly higher total in campaign donations in comparison to Pat Toomey. McGinty, the Democratic senator-hopeful, is a staunch detractor of the Citizens United decision, which allows for unlimited political expenditures from nonprofits, whilst Toomey supports the decision under the guise of Free Speech in the First Amendment. Toomey's total support has reached $18.6 million while McGinty has seen $38.9 million in outside support.

Post by Dan Hamann

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/growls/McGintyToomeys-money-race.html
http://triblive.com/news/allegheny/11214254-74/senate-toomey-outside

Voter Intensity to Keep Elections Tight

This article from the Atlantic outlines why Democrats in Pennsylvania are voting Trump and likely impacts it might have on the election. Even though Clinton is up in the polls, there are two factors that could be very likely to flip the vote Republican and make for an interesting day at the polls for a key swing state. The first of which, is that of last year, over half of the voting population never showed up to the polls last year and if only 10% of that population voted this year, it could have a profound impact according to Paul Sracic, a political scientist at Youngstown State. As further outlined in the article, voter behavior has ever-increasingly shifted Republican behind the political party’s belief in energy production in Pennsylvania. The difference this election is the intensity of vote and the realization that many plants will be likely to shut down if Clinton is elected. This is a large portion of the voter opinion, and it doesn’t matter this election if this population of voters normally affiliate themselves with the Democratic or Republican party in these areas. For a means of livelihood, they want to see the economy improve or at the very least stay the same, at whatever cost. Since these Democrats might likely flip to Republican, it could greatly swing the vote.

Even after an embarrassing week for Trump, it’s likely not going to reflect in the polls in Pennsylvania. Voter intensity is so strong to retain their means of livelihood that it could make more people show up to vote, which doesn’t reflect in the polls. However, this behavior is stronger in Western Pennsylvania and another key area some people believe will have a greater effect is in suburban areas outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburg.  

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/

Elections aren't just about who votes, it's also about who doesn't vote

On September 28^th Michelle Obama held two events in Pennsylvania. She campaigns for presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. One was a rally in Philadelphia, La Salle University, the other one in Pittsburgh at the Peterson Events Center.

First lady attacked Donald Trump and the way he behaves according to his character and how he expressed himself in debates on Monday about being “smart” not paying taxes. She did not mention his name, but she outlined Trump’s “erratic” behavior and being birther. [1]

She prompted new people to vote for Clinton even if she is not “the perfect candidate”.

"Experience matters. Preparation matters. Temperament matters. Hillary Clinton has it all. She's the real deal," Obama told a rally at La Salle University in Philadelphia.

Young voters matter the most because of the existing tendency – they are the key for Democrats and older citizens vote for Republicans. Right now Clinton have less support than Obama did with young voters.

"If you vote for someone other than Hillary or don't vote at all, you are helping to elect Hillary's opponent. And the stakes of taking that chance are too high," the first lady said. She added the work Clinton has done to improve education (including reducing the cost of higher education) and expand health care and child care.  

Post by Anete Rožukalne

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/28/michelle-obama-attacks-trumps-temperament-birther-past-in-pennsylvania-stump.html

https://hillaryspeeches.com/2016/09/28/first-lady-michelle-obama-campaigns-in-pennsylvania/

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[1] a person who doubts the legitimacy of Barack Obama's presidency because of a conspiracy theory that Obama is not a natural-born US citizen.