Pocketed Support Balances Pennsylvania

This piece, written as part of a 10-part series on Battleground States in the U.S., details the duality of party politics in Pennsylvania. The balance of both the Republican and Democratic parties, in regards to overall popular support, is split close to even. However, if one were to investigate only a map of support by counties, Pennsylvania would appear staunchly Republican, with a majority of the large rural populace tending to vote red. Based on the 2012 presidential results, roughly 90 percent of Pennsylvania by area was Republican dominated. The Democratic support is concentrated in urban centers, which geographically consist of less overall area but contain a much higher populace per given area. The deciding factor, as noted by RealClear Politics, then falls to the suburban areas surrounding many of Pennsylvania’s urban centers, such as Pittsburgh, and namely Philadelphia. In 2012, about one-third of the total votes cast in Pennsylvania came from Philadelphia and its 4 surrounding suburban counties. Historically, these counties have shown blue support, but could have potential to be swayed based on a trend towards fiscal conservativism among residents.

For Trump, these counties are ultimately a chance to take Pennsylvania, which for 28 years has voted blue. By appealing to middle class coal workers in a declining primary sector, Trump hopes to pull much of the rural support out of Pennsylvania, and with some uncharacteristic tact regarding fiscal issues in Philadelphia’s suburbs, he just may be able to win Pennsylvania.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/22/a_dual_strategy_is_key_to_pennsylvania_win_131856.html

Post by Dan Hamann

Tight Polls Heading Into First Debate

The article listed below is based on polls conducted by CNN/ORC, polling 1,032 Pennsylvania and 1,010 Colorado residents. I thought this article was significant to Pennsylvania in numerous ways. First, that Pennsylvania, along with Colorado, should be one of the primary swing states that could determine the results of the election and should be under close observation. Secondly, the race is still very close in Pennsylvania heading into the first debate (this could change after tonight). We should be watching for a number of things during the debate that might sway the vote in Pennsylvania. The key concern for Pennsylvanians highlighted in this article is our economy. According to the poll conducted, Trump led both states in terms of the economy while Clinton held an advantage in foreign policy. The issues of terrorism and immigration policy was evenly split between Trump and Clinton.

As anticipated, this debate should be record-breaking in terms of viewers. A strong performance or folly could easily determine a winner or loser in the strong swing state of Pennsylvania and determine the election. Issues of manufacturing and the economy should favor Trump, while issues along foreign policy will favor Clinton. A winner in the areas of terrorism and immigration should be paid close attention tonight if one was to predict a candidate to break through in Pennsylvania.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/

Trump promises to boost both coal and natural gas

Donald Trump on Thursday traveled to Pittsburg. As New York Times write, he promised the impossible for the city: a boom for coal and gas.

Exploration of natural gas would hurt coal production, and vice versa. These two fuels compete for the same market - which one will light American homes. So it is impossible to increase production of one without decreasing the other.

“The shale energy revolution will unleash massive wealth for America,” he told an audience of chief executives from the energy industry. “And we will end the war on coal and the war on miners.”Robert N. Stavins, director of the environmental economic program at Harvard, said that Mr.Trump has showed a lack of basic knowledge about energy markets. Right now there is a tremendous fall in coal employment - low natural gas prices due to increased supplies of natural gas from hydraulic fracturing.

Mr.Trump also said “We will scrap the Clean Power Plan!”(President Obama’s climate change policy, the Clean Power Plan. The heart of the rule is a set of aggressive Environmental Protection Agency regulations intended to curb planet-warming carbon pollution, which comes mainly from coal-fired power plants. The rule has been temporarily suspended by a Supreme Court order, but if it is eventually upheld, it would most likely lead to the shutdown of hundreds of coal-fired plants — and an eventual freeze of the nation’s coal markets.)

From the one hand, it would please the coal industry, but from the other, it could work against natural gas. (Gas produces just half the carbon pollution of coal).

Stavin says that:" if Trump really wants to do something as president for natural gas, he should support the Clean Power Plan,” Professor Stavins said. “Yes, it will hurt coal, but it increase demand for natural gas.”

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/us/politics/donald-trump-fracking.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FPennsylvania 

7-Peat? A Statistical Look at the Likelihood

This article published by Politics Pennsylvania analyzes statistics from previous elections to predict the likelihood of Pennsylvania becoming a Democratic victory for the 7^th cycle straight. Most of the article is an in-depth look at patterns of previous winning streaks while referring to each presidential race as a cycle.

While 36 states are in their longest Democratic or Republican winning streak, at least one major state (10+ electoral votes) each cycle has flipped 44 out of the last 46 times. Further statistics from Smart Politics indicates a likelihood in a flip this year; since 1932 about 40% of the time a state reached a 6^th cycle winning streak, it was flipped the following cycle. Furthermore, out of the 10 states holding a 6-cycle Democratic winning cycle, Pennsylvania has held the narrowest margin of victory at an average of 6.8 points. Out of the 59 instances that a state held a 6-cycle winning streak with this narrow margin of victory, only twice did the state maintain their winning streak to a 7^th cycle.

As statistics might appear to show, Republicans might have faith that Pennsylvania will be the state to flip this year. However, statistics also show that in the cases where 40% of states flipping in their 7^th cycle, the streak-breaking candidate won the electoral vote in a landslide. In all, it seems that with how tight of a presidential race it is, it’s unlikely for Pennsylvania to break their Democratic winning streak. However, there are numerous statistics that could suggest otherwise.

http://www.politicspa.com/the-7-cycle-itch-will-pennsylvania-flip-in-2016/78631/

Post by Brian Kraegenbrink

If someone gets most votes in Pennsylvania, then he or she win overall

David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research, is running 100 000 simulations of the elections every day. At the moment he’s results show that Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election and that whoever will win the state means a more likely shot of winning other swing states. Predictions say that only 6% of scenarios Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and 3% of scenarios Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.

Pennsylvania is more secure for the Clinton camp than other swing states.  Generally right now Clinton is in the lead for about 3% over Trump. For statisticians this is not a unique election experience, they argue that Pennsylvania will take Virginia’s place. Like it was 4 years ago – Romney must take Florida, Ohio and Virginia. This year it is: Trump must take Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Voting polls differ, PredictWise reports a 78% chance of Clinton winning the state; poll by Franklin & Marshall College shows Clinton leading Trump 47 to 40%.

Before  the debates start it is clear that Clinton is in lead, but everything can change and Trump also has a chance to overtake her position.

Posted by Anete Rožukalne

Source:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html?_r=0

Pennsylvania as a Swing State

This piece, published by U.S. News and World Report, goes into depth regarding the focus of both the Democratic and Republican candidates on key swing states throughout the United States, with a particular focus on what are stated as two of the most contested, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Since the conclusion of the presidential primaries, no two states have seen a higher number of presidential visit days than Ohio or Pennsylvania, with a combined 13 and 10 respectively. As stated in the article, the significance of these swing states is based on a history of incredibly tight elections, making them desirable states to campaign in. In simple terms, it makes much more sense for a candidate to campaign more intensely in states that have a much higher percentage chance of victory for them and their backing party, since both candidates have close to equal support from voters of both parties; there is literally a chance that these states can “swing” an election in one direction or another based on their popular support in a few given states with nearly equal voter numbers for each party. Swing states aren't necessarily always a given grouping either, and can see shifts where bias will go from being very minimal for a state to largely tilted in one parties favor, in which case that state would no longer qualify for the definition as a swing state. 

Pennsylvania has historically favored the Democratic nominee, and as of this writing continues to favor the Democratic nominee according to polls from both Quinnipiac University and the Wall Street Journal.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/ohio-pennsylvania-are-presidential-races-most-visited-battleground-states

Post by Dan Hamann