This article published by Politics Pennsylvania analyzes
statistics from previous elections to predict the likelihood of Pennsylvania
becoming a Democratic victory for the 7th cycle straight. Most of the
article is an in-depth look at patterns of previous winning streaks while referring to
each presidential race as a cycle.
While 36 states are in their longest Democratic or
Republican winning streak, at least one major state (10+ electoral votes) each
cycle has flipped 44 out of the last 46 times. Further statistics from Smart
Politics indicates a likelihood in a flip this year; since 1932 about 40% of
the time a state reached a 6th cycle winning streak, it was flipped
the following cycle. Furthermore, out of the 10 states holding a 6-cycle
Democratic winning cycle, Pennsylvania has held the narrowest margin of victory
at an average of 6.8 points. Out of the 59 instances that a state held a
6-cycle winning streak with this narrow margin of victory, only twice did the
state maintain their winning streak to a 7th cycle.
As statistics might appear to show, Republicans might have
faith that Pennsylvania will be the state to flip this year. However,
statistics also show that in the cases where 40% of states flipping in their 7th
cycle, the streak-breaking candidate won the electoral vote in a landslide. In
all, it seems that with how tight of a presidential race it is, it’s unlikely
for Pennsylvania to break their Democratic winning streak. However, there are
numerous statistics that could suggest otherwise.
Post by Brian Kraegenbrink
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