Monday, October 3, 2016

Voter Intensity to Keep Elections Tight


This article from the Atlantic outlines why Democrats in Pennsylvania are voting Trump and likely impacts it might have on the election. Even though Clinton is up in the polls, there are two factors that could be very likely to flip the vote Republican and make for an interesting day at the polls for a key swing state. The first of which, is that of last year, over half of the voting population never showed up to the polls last year and if only 10% of that population voted this year, it could have a profound impact according to Paul Sracic, a political scientist at Youngstown State. As further outlined in the article, voter behavior has ever-increasingly shifted Republican behind the political party’s belief in energy production in Pennsylvania. The difference this election is the intensity of vote and the realization that many plants will be likely to shut down if Clinton is elected. This is a large portion of the voter opinion, and it doesn’t matter this election if this population of voters normally affiliate themselves with the Democratic or Republican party in these areas. For a means of livelihood, they want to see the economy improve or at the very least stay the same, at whatever cost. Since these Democrats might likely flip to Republican, it could greatly swing the vote.



Even after an embarrassing week for Trump, it’s likely not going to reflect in the polls in Pennsylvania. Voter intensity is so strong to retain their means of livelihood that it could make more people show up to vote, which doesn’t reflect in the polls. However, this behavior is stronger in Western Pennsylvania and another key area some people believe will have a greater effect is in suburban areas outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburg.  



http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/

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