Post Election Voting Demographics in Pennsylvania

This piece, published by NPR, strictly examines voting statistics by county for the state of Pennsylvania. While Pennsylvania has consistently swayed Democratic in each Presidential election since 1992, 2016 represents a flip in the trend for Presidential voting with the popular majority voting for the Republican candidate. There was only a discrepancy of less than 100,000 votes between the Democratic and Republican candidate, representing roughly 1 percent greater support for Donald Trump in terms of popular vote. One thing that is incredibly interesting in looking at county results is looking at population demographics versus voting trends. Of the 7 highest populated counties in Pennsylvania, 6 leaned Democratic, 5 counties of which represented a Democratic margin greater than 9 %. However, the 45 smallest counties in Pennsylvania by population all leaned Republican. This is a massive result for grassroots support, and surely influenced the overall voting trend in Pennsylvania. Ultimately, the rural support of small counties for the Republican party seems to have been enough to sway the election results for the state of Pennsylvania for the first time in over two decades.

Post by Dan Hamann

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/08/499666514/pennsylvania-2016-presidential-and-state-election-results

Election results

Donald Trump won in this election and also won in this state thanks to the popularity among working-class whites, and Pat Toomey was re-elected to the Senate.
However, Democrats have won every presidential race in Pennsylvania since 1992.
·         2012: Barack Obama
·         2008: Barack Obama
·         2004: John Kerry
·         2000: Al Gore
·         1996: Bill Clinton
To look more closesly to results:
Trump won with 49% (2,912,941)
Clinton 48% (2,844,705)
Johnson 2% (142,653)
Stein 1% (48,912)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pennsylvania-election-results/story?id=42603030

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Chester County

While Americans in all 50 states will head to the polls on Tuesday, the focus will be on a select few who will make all the difference in handing the presidency to either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. In the latest swing-state polls ahead of the presidential election, Trump’s already narrow path to the White House was looking increasingly perilous.

In Pennsylvania, a state which at 1 percent looked in-play for Trump, Clinton has a 4 percent lead in most-recent polling. It is a similar story in Michigan, where a final poll for Fox Channel 2 in conjunction with Mitchell Research showed a 5 percentage points lead for Clinton.

But looking at one of the most interesting counties in Pennsylvania - Chester County. In 2012, the county tied 49-49 for Obama and Romney, with just a slight edge to the Republican; increasingly, the demographic mix makes Chester a true swing county. Democrats and Republicans have been pushing their ground games hard in the last few weeks.

The unevenness of Chester County is part of what makes it a political toss-up. Once a Republican stronghold, it  is now almost perfectly split between the two major parties. The county's demographics are a mix of the rural conservatives who make up Trump's base; the rich voters who help make the county's median income the highest in state; middle-class moderates; and some of the poor, minority voters whom Clinton is counting on. All these voters, of different classes and races and ideologies, live close together.  As a result, campaigns have descended on Chester with ads, rallies, and meet-and-greet events--potential voters are targeted with almost scientific precision. The county is a case study in American demographic change, with its wildly uneven growth in prosperity, influx of Latinos, and fallen steel industry. All of the stark divides that have defined this election exist here in Chester County, in close proximity to one another.

Democrats in Chester County are focusing their energy on Coatesville, where roughly 47 percent of the 13,00 residents are African American. For a long time, it was home to the booming Lukens Steel Company, one of the biggest steel manufacturers in the U.S. But in the late ’90s, Lukens was purchased and the mill jobs slowly started going away; now one-third of the city lives in poverty.

http://www.ibtimes.com/latest-swing-state-polls-florida-ohio-north-carolina-pennsylvania-heading-donald-2443400

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/swing-state-pennsylvania-cant-wait-till-this-is-over/506909/


Post by Anete Rožukalne

SEPTA Strike Ends in Time for Election Day

Employees of the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), numbering greater than 5000, have tentatively ended their call to strike in time for Election Day. In a bid to gain recognition over pension benefits and time off disputes, SEPTA employees called to strike on November 1st, just 7 days before the Presidential election, resulting in massive gridlock and extended commutes. Public transportation services in Philadelphia, split between subways, buses, and trolleys provide nearly 1 million rides each weekday, many of these rides for residents who don't own an automobile. 

Lack of transportation would have had massive implications for Philadelphia residents who intended to vote, but had no convenient avenue to take to the polls. Philadelphia and it's expansive suburban swath to the North and East of the city show a Democratic majority, and potentially could have had a severe impact on voter turnout. The strike ended on November 7th, with many in Pennsylvania's local government citing the implications and questioning the legality of not providing transportation services to residents at Election time. 

Post by Dan Hamann

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/11/07/philadelphia-transit-strike-ends-union-septa-reach-deal-reports-say/93412510/

Counter Suits in the Case of Alleged Voter Fraud in Pennsylvania

This piece, produced by the Atlantic, is focused on the Democratic reactions to Donald Trump's previous claims of potential voter fraud. Trump encouraged his supporters to monitor polling stations in an effort to discourage voter fraud. While poll watching is allowed in Pennsylvania, there are stipulations to who and the number of people allowed to poll watch at respective  polling stations. Trump's encouragement essentially forewent the understanding of limits to poll watchers.

The real fear behind Trump's comments, and the reason that a number of different Democratic lawsuits against Trump have surfaced is based on the potential voter intimidation that could come out of encouraging party supporters to amass at polling sites. It is easy to make an argument that congregating at polling stations can be taken as voter intimidation or suppression, which is the reasoning behind Democratic lawsuits being brought forth against Trump.

As an anecdote at the end of the piece, which I found humorous, the publication published a statement made by a Republican city councilman, Joshua Lorenz, who posted via social media a web page that contained instructions for how Clinton supporters could vote online. Accompanying this web page, Lorenz' comments were as follows" More proof that the election process is rigged, only Hillary supporters can vote from their smartphones or in the comfort of their own homes." The Atlantic closes this piece by stating the fact that online voting in Pennsylvania is non-existent.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/poll-monitoring-voter-intimidation-lawsuits/506078/

Post by Dan Hamann

Sept. Jobs Report and Election Impacts

As the election approaches, and the results seem ever-increasingly determined, I thought I’d use this post to underline a major area of Pennsylvania concern, which has had a dramatic influence on politics. The September jobs report shows that PA unemployment remains unchanged, sitting at 5.7% above our nation’s 5.0% average. As much of PA’s historic economy has relied on mines that have recently took a hit over the last couple of years in favor of cleaner energy solutions, many people have lost their jobs. This has had a greater impact on this election because the Obama administration (and therefore the Democratic party) has been a main proponent of this change. Because of this, many people who normally wouldn’t vote are more likely to vote, and the intensity among these voters are higher than normal.

 

Another trend within PA that can be observed is the shift in population from rural to urban areas. This also presents another problem because, as outlined in the Sept. jobs report, total non-farm jobs decreased by over 5,000. This trend of urban vote has impacted election results because these voters typically vote in favor of the Democratic party.

 

http://www.politicspa.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-remains-unchanged/79451/

Final Senate Debate Yields No Surprises

In the final scheduled debate for the office of the Senator in Pennsylvania, Senator Pat Toomey and Democratic front runner and opponent Katie McGinty sparred over issues of social unrest, such as police shootings and abortion, as well as taxation and healthcare concerns. With polls for the presidential election trending towards Clinton, the battle for Senate is becoming ever important, with Pennsylvania becoming a true "battleground" for the Senate. McGinty and Toomey are polling almost identical, in a nationwide Senate race that has the potential to be decided by the smallest of margins, and will either tilt towards Democratic or Republican majority.

Unsurprisingly, Toomey discussed plans for tax cuts, conservative social theory, and consolidation of Federal services. Toomey would not pledge support for the Republican candidate Donald Trump when pushed, deferring any concrete judgement for or against the candidate. McGinty stressed support for African Americans following a period of social unrest and uneasiness regarding police brutality, and also declared herself as a "champion of the working class." She also voiced pro-choice support in regards to abortion, criticizing the "gruesome picture" that her opponent presented when discussing late term abortions.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161025_Toomey__McGinty_clash_in_final_debate.html

Post by Dan Hamann

Donald Trump held a rally in Newtown

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump held a rally in Newtown, Pennsylvania yesterday on October 21st. Trump’s press release says that the Republican nominee plans to rebuild the U.S. Navy on day one, “which has shrunk under the Obama-Clinton years to its lowest level since World War I. Donald Trump has proposed a significant increase in the size of Navy. He predicted a victory that would be like "Brexit times five," referencing the larger-than-expected vote in Great Britain to pull out of the European Union.National and state polls suggest that he faces a growing challenge: Trump lags behind Democrat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by an average margin of more than 6 percentage points. Many pollsters feel that the state has already been lost to Hillary Clinton. During the evening rally, much of Trump's speech focused on his  desire to build a wall along the Mexican border, end Obamacare and lower taxes. He also reiterated his pledge to put coal miners back to work, a policy proposal less tailored for his suburban audience.http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-president-trump-bucks-county-20161021-story.html   http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html 

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Philadelphia Responds to claims of voter fraud.

Elected officials in Pennsylvania, on both sides of the party line, have come together to criticize claims from Donald Trump that the only potential way for Trump to lose Pennsylvania is through voter fraud. Trump and other campaign advisers have singled out Philadelphia, a heavily Democratic region of Pennsylvania and the 5th largest U.S. city, as a potential hub for voter fraud that they speculate may cost the Republican nominee the state. The Republican election commissioner, Al Schmidt, stated "the real threat to the integrity of elections is irresponsible accusations that undermine confidence in the electoral process."

Trump also called for citizens to act as "election observers" or poll watchers in an attempt to prevent election fraud. However, there are strict laws in Pennsylvania about who and how many people can be appointed as watchers. Parties can assign a limited number of registered voters, that receive special credentials to watch over voting in their own precincts. This is not a luxury available to the general public, but instead an exclusive opportunity.

Post by Dan Hamann

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/philadelphia-leaders-assail-claims-of-impending-voter-fraud/2016/10/17/2e2abd62-94ab-11e6-9cae-2a3574e296a6_story.html

Closer Than Polls Might Indicate

In Emily Goodin’s article, For Pa. Voters, It’s Still the Economy, she highlights two key points. That the issue of economy has driven an incentive and therefore an increase in unlikely voters; this increase in unlikely voters aren’t represented in polls, which show Clinton up by an average of 7 percentage points. As the general election has tipped in Clinton’s favor, Democratic representatives such as Senator Bob Casey still are unsure that the polls accurately represent the close race Pennsylvania might become. Democratic representative Mike Dole also expressed concerns that voter interests weren’t appropriately being discussed, as both campaigns have recently shifted toward tarnishing each other instead.

As Trump is highly considered to be losing in most states, Pennsylvania might remain a tight decision based on voter intensity of low-income and mid-income families that have been hit hard by the economy.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/17/for_pa_voters_its_still_the_economy_132082.html

Pennsylvania Senate debate

The debate between Republican U.S. Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania’s race for U.S. Senate begun with accusations of dishonesty.

Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey and Democratic Katie McGinty went after each other in their first debate, with him sharpening an attack accusing her of enriching herself with taxpayer money and her pressing him over his refusal to say whether he'll vote for GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

McGinty called Toomey the only U.S. Senate candidate who won’t say whether he plans to vote for GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

The first-term Toomey is among the Senate’s most endangered Republicans, running for re-election in a state where registered Democrats hold a four-to-three advantage over Republicans.

In this race most notable issues  were differences over national security, tax policy, gun rights, abortion and immigration.

The hour-long debate was taped Monday afternoon and was to be broadcast at 7 p.m. A second debate is set for Oct. 24 in Philadelphia.

Toomey has repeatedly sought to distance himself from Trump, and on Monday he rejected Trump's suggestions the Pennsylvania election will be rigged, saying, "Our elections ... are legitimate."

On October 10, 2016, Toomey said that he would not endorse Donald Trump, but he did not say whether he would vote for Trump. He also said that he would not vote for Clinton. In a news release, Toomey said, "Sadly, last night’s debate again showed the shortcomings of both presidential candidates. I have not endorsed Donald Trump and I have repeatedly spoken out against his flawed policies, and his outrageous comments, including his indefensible and appalling comments about women.

Post by Anete Rožukalne

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/17/the-latest-first-debate-in-pennsylvania-senate-rac/   

Surging Voter Registration for Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has seen a boom in voter registration in the wake of its implementation of online methods, which are now used alongside the traditional paper registration method. Pennsylvania has seen nearly double the number of registrants in September of this election cycle in comparison to the same period of the last election, in 2012. The number of online registrants alone (172,000) is almost equal to the total number of registrants in 2012 (186,000) who at the time were relegated to paper registration. 

This boom in registration comes to a head on Tuesday, the 11th of October, when voter registration closes. The early available information regarding registrants sees a gain for Republican support and a drop in Democratic support, both at 3 percent respectively. However, the voter totals still sees a larger number (4.1 million) of registered Democrats in comparison to Republicans (3.2 million) and an additional 1.1 million unaffiliated or third-party voters. 

With Pennsylvania carrying significance as a swing state in recent history, current live polls show that the Democratic nominee holds a double digit point lead over the Republican nominee, and with voter registration coming to a close showcases the significance of both party leaders doing their best to convince undecided voters why their platform would be ideal.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2016/10/09/Online-voter-registration-surges-in-Pennsylvania/stories/201610090142

Post by Dan Hamann

Significance of Gender Trends in Pennsylvania

This article highlights the 2005 Trump tape that surfaced this week and likely voter reactions. This article specifically highlights that the 2005 tape in which he made extremely lewd and belittling remarks about women had a stronger impact among women’s opinions of Trump. This may seem obvious, but has detrimental impacts on Trump’s campaign specifically in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is basically split in that urban areas in major cities are heavily Democrat and rural areas heavily Republican. Listed in previous articles, a duel strategy is key to winning Pennsylvania—holding onto party-dominated areas, while gaining the suburban swing vote. As the article notes, Trump was already facing a deficit in women voters, particularly women with college degrees. This is significant because suburban areas (Pennsylvania’s swing vote) tend to have higher income and education levels.

In the article, a poll done by CBS showed that 42% among males and 53% among females changed their views of Trump after the release of the 2005 tape. Although the article focuses on noting the difference between gender reactions, I would rather like to highlight the effects it will have on the suburban swing vote.

Before the tape surfaced, CBS polls already showed Clinton with 48% of the vote, besting Trump’s 40% among likely voters. With negative trends in educated women in support of Trump, a victory in the suburban area would be extremely unlikely, and therefore, a Republican victory in Pennsylvania would be highly unlikely.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/

Post by Brian Kraegenbrink

The Latest Polls

The latest polls of the presidential race shows that Hillary Clinton after the first debate was with a narrow lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

Clinton was 48% and Trump 43%. The poll says that Clinton loses support among women and Democrats. Although that Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, says that „North Carolina and Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton the narrowest of lead”.

Huffington post yesterday’s latest poll states that Clinton has 46,5% and Trump 40,7%. Polls differ, so it is not hundred percent sure what is the correct result. Clintons back is the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs. The poll shows her leading in this area, 64 percent to 28 percent and in the city of Philadelphia, she has 53-point lead, meaning that she is in unsurpassed lead. The Pennsylvania poll was conducted October 3-6, surveying 709 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Polls (CBS News/YouGov polls) from other swing states also show good results for Clinton, she is in 8 point lead in Pennsylvania and 4 point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin.

Donald Trump is in Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre giving speech to his supporters. He is talking about Clinton's mistakes, health care and employment problems in state. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/clinton-trump-florida-pennsylvania-polls-229404

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps09082016_pg92cxm.pdf

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-pennsylvania-president-trump-vs-clinton

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Massive Campaign Donations in Pennsylvania's Senate Race

This piece, from the Philadelphia Inquirer, examines the massive influx of campaign, PAC, and special interests donations that put Pennsylvania at the very top in terms of Senate race combined campaign donations. The main players in Pennsylvania's senate race are Katie McGinty (D) and Pat Toomey (R), and both are receiving unprecedented financial support from respective interests.

These donations create a question of representative legitimacy, where answering to the donating special interests could potentially take priority over representation of the common constituents that both Senatorial candidates are tasked with speaking for. An accompanying piece, penned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, brings into question the issue of representative legitimacy. Robert Maguire, a political nonprofit investigator for the Center for Responsive Politics, brings up the point "When politicians get in office, they know who got them there. It's not that major donors buy policies or politicians, but when they call, they get their call answered by senators, That's not something regular constituents get."

Additionally, the irony of the donation situation falls on the shoulders of McGinty, who has received a significantly higher total in campaign donations in comparison to Pat Toomey. McGinty, the Democratic senator-hopeful, is a staunch detractor of the Citizens United decision, which allows for unlimited political expenditures from nonprofits, whilst Toomey supports the decision under the guise of Free Speech in the First Amendment. Toomey's total support has reached $18.6 million while McGinty has seen $38.9 million in outside support.

Post by Dan Hamann

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/growls/McGintyToomeys-money-race.html
http://triblive.com/news/allegheny/11214254-74/senate-toomey-outside

Voter Intensity to Keep Elections Tight

This article from the Atlantic outlines why Democrats in Pennsylvania are voting Trump and likely impacts it might have on the election. Even though Clinton is up in the polls, there are two factors that could be very likely to flip the vote Republican and make for an interesting day at the polls for a key swing state. The first of which, is that of last year, over half of the voting population never showed up to the polls last year and if only 10% of that population voted this year, it could have a profound impact according to Paul Sracic, a political scientist at Youngstown State. As further outlined in the article, voter behavior has ever-increasingly shifted Republican behind the political party’s belief in energy production in Pennsylvania. The difference this election is the intensity of vote and the realization that many plants will be likely to shut down if Clinton is elected. This is a large portion of the voter opinion, and it doesn’t matter this election if this population of voters normally affiliate themselves with the Democratic or Republican party in these areas. For a means of livelihood, they want to see the economy improve or at the very least stay the same, at whatever cost. Since these Democrats might likely flip to Republican, it could greatly swing the vote.

Even after an embarrassing week for Trump, it’s likely not going to reflect in the polls in Pennsylvania. Voter intensity is so strong to retain their means of livelihood that it could make more people show up to vote, which doesn’t reflect in the polls. However, this behavior is stronger in Western Pennsylvania and another key area some people believe will have a greater effect is in suburban areas outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburg.  

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/

Elections aren't just about who votes, it's also about who doesn't vote

On September 28^th Michelle Obama held two events in Pennsylvania. She campaigns for presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. One was a rally in Philadelphia, La Salle University, the other one in Pittsburgh at the Peterson Events Center.

First lady attacked Donald Trump and the way he behaves according to his character and how he expressed himself in debates on Monday about being “smart” not paying taxes. She did not mention his name, but she outlined Trump’s “erratic” behavior and being birther. [1]

She prompted new people to vote for Clinton even if she is not “the perfect candidate”.

"Experience matters. Preparation matters. Temperament matters. Hillary Clinton has it all. She's the real deal," Obama told a rally at La Salle University in Philadelphia.

Young voters matter the most because of the existing tendency – they are the key for Democrats and older citizens vote for Republicans. Right now Clinton have less support than Obama did with young voters.

"If you vote for someone other than Hillary or don't vote at all, you are helping to elect Hillary's opponent. And the stakes of taking that chance are too high," the first lady said. She added the work Clinton has done to improve education (including reducing the cost of higher education) and expand health care and child care.  

Post by Anete Rožukalne

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/28/michelle-obama-attacks-trumps-temperament-birther-past-in-pennsylvania-stump.html

https://hillaryspeeches.com/2016/09/28/first-lady-michelle-obama-campaigns-in-pennsylvania/

---

[1] a person who doubts the legitimacy of Barack Obama's presidency because of a conspiracy theory that Obama is not a natural-born US citizen.

Pocketed Support Balances Pennsylvania

This piece, written as part of a 10-part series on Battleground States in the U.S., details the duality of party politics in Pennsylvania. The balance of both the Republican and Democratic parties, in regards to overall popular support, is split close to even. However, if one were to investigate only a map of support by counties, Pennsylvania would appear staunchly Republican, with a majority of the large rural populace tending to vote red. Based on the 2012 presidential results, roughly 90 percent of Pennsylvania by area was Republican dominated. The Democratic support is concentrated in urban centers, which geographically consist of less overall area but contain a much higher populace per given area. The deciding factor, as noted by RealClear Politics, then falls to the suburban areas surrounding many of Pennsylvania’s urban centers, such as Pittsburgh, and namely Philadelphia. In 2012, about one-third of the total votes cast in Pennsylvania came from Philadelphia and its 4 surrounding suburban counties. Historically, these counties have shown blue support, but could have potential to be swayed based on a trend towards fiscal conservativism among residents.

For Trump, these counties are ultimately a chance to take Pennsylvania, which for 28 years has voted blue. By appealing to middle class coal workers in a declining primary sector, Trump hopes to pull much of the rural support out of Pennsylvania, and with some uncharacteristic tact regarding fiscal issues in Philadelphia’s suburbs, he just may be able to win Pennsylvania.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/22/a_dual_strategy_is_key_to_pennsylvania_win_131856.html

Post by Dan Hamann

Tight Polls Heading Into First Debate

The article listed below is based on polls conducted by CNN/ORC, polling 1,032 Pennsylvania and 1,010 Colorado residents. I thought this article was significant to Pennsylvania in numerous ways. First, that Pennsylvania, along with Colorado, should be one of the primary swing states that could determine the results of the election and should be under close observation. Secondly, the race is still very close in Pennsylvania heading into the first debate (this could change after tonight). We should be watching for a number of things during the debate that might sway the vote in Pennsylvania. The key concern for Pennsylvanians highlighted in this article is our economy. According to the poll conducted, Trump led both states in terms of the economy while Clinton held an advantage in foreign policy. The issues of terrorism and immigration policy was evenly split between Trump and Clinton.

As anticipated, this debate should be record-breaking in terms of viewers. A strong performance or folly could easily determine a winner or loser in the strong swing state of Pennsylvania and determine the election. Issues of manufacturing and the economy should favor Trump, while issues along foreign policy will favor Clinton. A winner in the areas of terrorism and immigration should be paid close attention tonight if one was to predict a candidate to break through in Pennsylvania.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/

Trump promises to boost both coal and natural gas

Donald Trump on Thursday traveled to Pittsburg. As New York Times write, he promised the impossible for the city: a boom for coal and gas.

Exploration of natural gas would hurt coal production, and vice versa. These two fuels compete for the same market - which one will light American homes. So it is impossible to increase production of one without decreasing the other.

“The shale energy revolution will unleash massive wealth for America,” he told an audience of chief executives from the energy industry. “And we will end the war on coal and the war on miners.”Robert N. Stavins, director of the environmental economic program at Harvard, said that Mr.Trump has showed a lack of basic knowledge about energy markets. Right now there is a tremendous fall in coal employment - low natural gas prices due to increased supplies of natural gas from hydraulic fracturing.

Mr.Trump also said “We will scrap the Clean Power Plan!”(President Obama’s climate change policy, the Clean Power Plan. The heart of the rule is a set of aggressive Environmental Protection Agency regulations intended to curb planet-warming carbon pollution, which comes mainly from coal-fired power plants. The rule has been temporarily suspended by a Supreme Court order, but if it is eventually upheld, it would most likely lead to the shutdown of hundreds of coal-fired plants — and an eventual freeze of the nation’s coal markets.)

From the one hand, it would please the coal industry, but from the other, it could work against natural gas. (Gas produces just half the carbon pollution of coal).

Stavin says that:" if Trump really wants to do something as president for natural gas, he should support the Clean Power Plan,” Professor Stavins said. “Yes, it will hurt coal, but it increase demand for natural gas.”

Post by Anete Rožukalne

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/us/politics/donald-trump-fracking.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FPennsylvania 

7-Peat? A Statistical Look at the Likelihood

This article published by Politics Pennsylvania analyzes statistics from previous elections to predict the likelihood of Pennsylvania becoming a Democratic victory for the 7^th cycle straight. Most of the article is an in-depth look at patterns of previous winning streaks while referring to each presidential race as a cycle.

While 36 states are in their longest Democratic or Republican winning streak, at least one major state (10+ electoral votes) each cycle has flipped 44 out of the last 46 times. Further statistics from Smart Politics indicates a likelihood in a flip this year; since 1932 about 40% of the time a state reached a 6^th cycle winning streak, it was flipped the following cycle. Furthermore, out of the 10 states holding a 6-cycle Democratic winning cycle, Pennsylvania has held the narrowest margin of victory at an average of 6.8 points. Out of the 59 instances that a state held a 6-cycle winning streak with this narrow margin of victory, only twice did the state maintain their winning streak to a 7^th cycle.

As statistics might appear to show, Republicans might have faith that Pennsylvania will be the state to flip this year. However, statistics also show that in the cases where 40% of states flipping in their 7^th cycle, the streak-breaking candidate won the electoral vote in a landslide. In all, it seems that with how tight of a presidential race it is, it’s unlikely for Pennsylvania to break their Democratic winning streak. However, there are numerous statistics that could suggest otherwise.

http://www.politicspa.com/the-7-cycle-itch-will-pennsylvania-flip-in-2016/78631/

Post by Brian Kraegenbrink

If someone gets most votes in Pennsylvania, then he or she win overall

David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research, is running 100 000 simulations of the elections every day. At the moment he’s results show that Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election and that whoever will win the state means a more likely shot of winning other swing states. Predictions say that only 6% of scenarios Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and 3% of scenarios Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.

Pennsylvania is more secure for the Clinton camp than other swing states.  Generally right now Clinton is in the lead for about 3% over Trump. For statisticians this is not a unique election experience, they argue that Pennsylvania will take Virginia’s place. Like it was 4 years ago – Romney must take Florida, Ohio and Virginia. This year it is: Trump must take Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Voting polls differ, PredictWise reports a 78% chance of Clinton winning the state; poll by Franklin & Marshall College shows Clinton leading Trump 47 to 40%.

Before  the debates start it is clear that Clinton is in lead, but everything can change and Trump also has a chance to overtake her position.

Posted by Anete Rožukalne

Source:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html?_r=0

Pennsylvania as a Swing State

This piece, published by U.S. News and World Report, goes into depth regarding the focus of both the Democratic and Republican candidates on key swing states throughout the United States, with a particular focus on what are stated as two of the most contested, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Since the conclusion of the presidential primaries, no two states have seen a higher number of presidential visit days than Ohio or Pennsylvania, with a combined 13 and 10 respectively. As stated in the article, the significance of these swing states is based on a history of incredibly tight elections, making them desirable states to campaign in. In simple terms, it makes much more sense for a candidate to campaign more intensely in states that have a much higher percentage chance of victory for them and their backing party, since both candidates have close to equal support from voters of both parties; there is literally a chance that these states can “swing” an election in one direction or another based on their popular support in a few given states with nearly equal voter numbers for each party. Swing states aren't necessarily always a given grouping either, and can see shifts where bias will go from being very minimal for a state to largely tilted in one parties favor, in which case that state would no longer qualify for the definition as a swing state. 

Pennsylvania has historically favored the Democratic nominee, and as of this writing continues to favor the Democratic nominee according to polls from both Quinnipiac University and the Wall Street Journal.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/ohio-pennsylvania-are-presidential-races-most-visited-battleground-states

Post by Dan Hamann