David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research, is
running 100 000 simulations of the elections every day. At the moment he’s
results show that Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won
by the candidate who wins the election and that whoever will win the state
means a more likely shot of winning other swing states. Predictions say
that only 6% of scenarios Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and
3% of scenarios Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.
Pennsylvania is more secure for the Clinton camp than other
swing states. Generally right now
Clinton is in the lead for about 3% over Trump. For statisticians this is not a
unique election experience, they argue that Pennsylvania will take Virginia’s
place. Like it was 4 years ago – Romney must take Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
This year it is: Trump must take Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Voting polls differ, PredictWise reports a 78% chance of
Clinton winning the state; poll by Franklin & Marshall College shows
Clinton leading Trump 47 to 40%.
Before the debates
start it is clear that Clinton is in lead, but everything can change and Trump
also has a chance to overtake her position.
Posted by Anete Rožukalne
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