This piece, written as part of a 10-part series on
Battleground States in the U.S., details the duality of party politics in
Pennsylvania. The balance of both the Republican and Democratic parties, in
regards to overall popular support, is split close to even. However, if one
were to investigate only a map of support by counties, Pennsylvania would
appear staunchly Republican, with a majority of the large rural populace
tending to vote red. Based on the 2012 presidential results, roughly 90 percent
of Pennsylvania by area was Republican dominated. The Democratic support is
concentrated in urban centers, which geographically consist of less overall
area but contain a much higher populace per given area. The deciding factor, as
noted by RealClear Politics, then falls to the suburban areas surrounding many
of Pennsylvania’s urban centers, such as Pittsburgh, and namely Philadelphia.
In 2012, about one-third of the total votes cast in Pennsylvania came from
Philadelphia and its 4 surrounding suburban counties. Historically, these
counties have shown blue support, but could have potential to be swayed based
on a trend towards fiscal conservativism among residents.
For Trump, these counties are ultimately a chance to take
Pennsylvania, which for 28 years has voted blue. By appealing to middle class
coal workers in a declining primary sector, Trump hopes to pull much of the
rural support out of Pennsylvania, and with some uncharacteristic tact
regarding fiscal issues in Philadelphia’s suburbs, he just may be able to win
Pennsylvania.
Post by Dan Hamann
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